Uncertainty is an 853lb gorilla
Uncertainty in a startup is that 853 lb gorilla in the room. He is in the corner and for the most part just seeming to bide his time quietly until you are in a pitch session and he decides now is the time to pound his chest. What do you do?
I think there are two basic reactions one can take to this. One (which seems the more common route in the world of techie startups) is to try to shout above him with answers for every question with a just plain cocky attitude to your idea and position in the market (i.e. I rock, my product rocks and everyone else out there is an idiot). A position to which v.c.’s and angels seem attracted to for some reason.
Or. One can take the approach to admit, understand and control uncertainty. That gorilla is just how the urban dictionary defines him, “An overbearing entity in a specific sphere of activity.” So, know he is there, publicly admit it and know when to say “we don’t know, but lets look at that.”
There is nothing wrong about being uncertain of particular “what if’s” - One of the first speakers we had a dreamit, stated one hard line fact that when it comes to business plan they all have one thing in common “They are all wrong.”
They key here how to control this “853lb Gorilla of Uncertainty” - be confident about what you have control over and start to make the “what if” issues simple and testable. Build quickly, then prove or fail quickly.
Let’s close out with some Rumsfeldien poetry on the matter….
The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don’t know
We don’t know.
—Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing
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